Brandon Royval
vs Lone'er Kavanagh
Kalshi
32¢
Fair
33.7%
Book
+186
Source: pinnacle · updated Jul 5, 2026
Public accountability ledger
Timestamped forecasts, then honest grading.
The public product is simple: publish forecasts before the event, record the market price, explain the thesis, then grade the call by result and closing-line value. The ledger expands market by market. If Sharp cannot prove it can beat the close, it does not deserve money.
Published forecasts
These are official tracked forecasts from the forecast ledger.
No official forecast ledger published for the current card yet. The edge candidates below are research leads, not official forecasts.
Research candidates
Potential mispricings to review before publishing a forecast.
EV 3.5%
Conor McGregor
vs Max Holloway
Kalshi
34¢
Fair
34.5%
Book
+179
Source: pinnacle · updated Jul 5, 2026
Zachary Reese
vs Ryan Gandra
Kalshi
45¢
Fair
46.3%
Book
+108
Source: pinnacle · updated Jul 5, 2026
Robert Whittaker
vs Nikita Krylov
Kalshi
57¢
Fair
59.1%
Book
-159
Source: pinnacle · updated Jul 5, 2026
Gable Steveson
vs Elisha Ellison
Kalshi
91¢
Fair
93.0%
Book
-2850
Source: pinnacle · updated Jul 5, 2026
King Green
vs Terrance Mckinney
Kalshi
42¢
Fair
42.6%
Book
+126
Source: pinnacle · updated Jul 5, 2026
Damian Pinas
vs Cesar Almeida
Kalshi
66¢
Fair
67.0%
Book
-229
Source: pinnacle · updated Jul 5, 2026
Mario Bautista
vs Cory Sandhagen
Kalshi
42¢
Fair
42.4%
Book
+127
Source: pinnacle · updated Jul 5, 2026
Cody Garbrandt
vs Adrian Yanez
Kalshi
22¢
Fair
23.0%
Book
+319
Source: pinnacle · updated Jul 5, 2026
Cody Durden
vs Alessandro Costa
Kalshi
30¢
Fair
30.0%
Book
+221
Source: pinnacle · updated Jul 5, 2026
Cesar Almeida
vs Damian Pinas
Kalshi
32¢
Fair
33.0%
Book
+192
Source: pinnacle · updated Jul 5, 2026
Kamaru Usman
vs Dricus Du Plessis
Kalshi
28¢
Fair
28.1%
Book
+243
Source: pinnacle · updated Jul 5, 2026